Sunday, February 22, 2009

2009 Oscar Picks

I usually watch the Oscars, if for no other reason than to see a couple of train wrecks. However, wifey has other plans for us this evening, so I will miss all the fun.

As has been the case the last few years, I have not seen all of the nominated films and performances, but neither have a lot of the voters, so I should be in good shape to nail a few predictions.

Supporting Actress: This seems like a two-way race between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis. Through the years, this category has been the toughest call (can you say Helen Hunt?), but I give the nod to Penélope Cruz as the fiery ex-wife in Vicky Christina Barcelona.

Supporting Actor: You might have heard - Heath Ledger won this months ago.

Lead Actress: Two months ago, this looked like it was Anne Hathaway's award, but Kate Winslet gets consolidated support for her performance in The Reader by not being nominated for supporting in Revolutionary Road. Sixth time is the charm for Kate.

Lead Actor: This looks like a two-way race between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. It's really too close to call, but I will give the edge to Sean Penn with the caveat that Rourke would win if the vote were today rather than a few weeks ago.

Directing: I can't see the best picture not getting one of the other top five awards, so Danny Boyle takes this award for his work on Slumdog Millionaire.

Best.Picture: This award is the second most likely lock behind supporting actor. Slumdog Millionaire wins it.

If there is an upset tonight, I think the most likely category is best actress, where either Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway could surprise.

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