Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Predictions
Four years ago, I won the electoral college prediction poll at Mathew Gross' blog with a direct hit (unfortunately, he wiped his archives before 2005, probably in an attempt to avoid giving me my prize for the win). Of course, that election was more predictable than now since most states fell in line with the 2000 election.
So this year, it will be a little tougher. Here goes.
NC Governor: Pat McCrory defies the polls and tradition and upsets Bev Perdue by 1% or so.
Mike Munger gets about 4% of the vote to ensure a Libertarian candidate on the ballot in 2012.
NC Senator: Kay Hagan limits Elizabeth Doll to one term with a win by 7%.
US Congress: Democrats pick up eight Senate seats and 22 house seats.
US President: John McCain comes back to win NC in a squeaker that might take a few hours to call.
Barack Obama takes about 53% of the popular vote to win by 8%. His edge in the electoral college is around 352-186.
Best guess is Obama is declared the winner at 9:08pm EST.
So this year, it will be a little tougher. Here goes.
NC Governor: Pat McCrory defies the polls and tradition and upsets Bev Perdue by 1% or so.
Mike Munger gets about 4% of the vote to ensure a Libertarian candidate on the ballot in 2012.
NC Senator: Kay Hagan limits Elizabeth Doll to one term with a win by 7%.
US Congress: Democrats pick up eight Senate seats and 22 house seats.
US President: John McCain comes back to win NC in a squeaker that might take a few hours to call.
Barack Obama takes about 53% of the popular vote to win by 8%. His edge in the electoral college is around 352-186.
Best guess is Obama is declared the winner at 9:08pm EST.
